The FINANCIAL -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia from Oct. 6 to Oct. 7.
Sarkozy’s tour of the Caucasus entailed securing Europe’s energy interests and France’s business and foreign policy goals, but with French presidential elections coming up in April Sarkozy also hoped to benefit from the trip by capitalizing on his past successes and popularity in the region. Nevertheless, the visit is unlikely to significantly improve Sarkozy’s already low popularity ratings, which are much more dependent on issues closer to home like the European financial crisis.
STRATFOR Analysis
French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Azerbaijan and Georgia on Oct. 7 to discuss business relations, energy deals and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, among other issues. The previous day, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian, Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, the mayor of Yerevan and several lawmakers greeted Sarkozy in Armenia.
With presidential elections approaching in April, Sarkozy is using his South Caucasus tour as an opportunity to remind French voters, including a substantial Armenian diaspora, of his accomplishments as an international mediator (Sarkozy helped to negotiate the cease-fire in the 2008 Russo-Georgian war) as well as to show that France remains an important international player. In Azerbaijan he also discussed energy projects and natural gas supplies to Europe. Nevertheless, Sarkozy’s regional tour is unlikely to significantly improve his already low popularity ratings, which are much more dependent on issues closer to home like the European financial crisis.
Armenia is important to France because there is a large and influential Armenian community — estimated to number roughly 450,000 — living in France. Sarkozy’s visit was intended to capture the attention of this segment of France’s population, as evidenced by his trip to the Armenian Genocide Memorial in Yerevan. Moreover, Sarkozy and Sarkisian discussed the stalemate over the Nagorno-Karabakh territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. France is a co-chair of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Minsk Group, which is tasked with finding a settlement to the conflict. Given the geopolitical realities of the region, there is little France can do to solve the problem, but simply trying will help Sarkozy’s image with Armenians, including those in France.
In Azerbaijan, Sarkozy met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. France and Azerbaijan have strong economic relations, with trade between the two totaling about $1.8 billion in 2010 and French businesses’ interest in the country growing. More important, Azerbaijan is a significant energy source for Europe via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines. French oil firm Total SA is helping to develop the offshore Absheron block, which is estimated to contain several trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Sarkozy and Azerbaijani officials also likely discussed Azerbaijani natural gas supplies to Europe, particularly through the prospective Nabucco pipeline — a very important issue for Europe as it tries to diversify its energy sources away from Russia.
The French president’s last stop was in Georgia, where he met with his Georgian counterpart, Mikhail Saakashvili , and delivered a speech at Liberty Square in Tbilisi . Because he is credited with mediating the cease-fire between Georgia and Russia in 2008, Sarkozy is quite popular among Georgians. Still, Sarkozy and Paris recognize the extent of Russian influence in the Caucasus. Sarkozy was expected to discuss relations between Tbilisi and MOSCOW in addition to addressing Georgia’s bid to join NATO and the European Union, but he knows talk of Georgia joining these Western institutions is unlikely to materialize, despite the fact that Poland made the issue a priority of its EU Eastern Partnership program. Sarkozy and Saakashvili may also have discussed Russia’s interest in joining the World Trade Organization — which is strongly opposed by Georgia — but Paris similarly has little control over that outcome.
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